Week 16 NFL Spreads: STATS vs. Las Vegas

By: STATS LLC | December 22, 2017

Using STATS X-Info metrics and roster rankings to project NFL favorites vs. the Vegas standard odds

The NFC South is arguably the best division in the NFL despite Tampa Bay sitting at the bottom with a 4-10 record. The other three teams are making the conference’s playoff picture look less clear, as an Atlanta victory over New Orleans this week would give the South three 10-win teams.

The last time that happened was 2001, when New England, Miami and the New York Jets did in the AFC East. The NFL went to four divisions in each conference the following year, and the feat hasn’t been accomplished since.

STATS believes it’ll happen Sunday with a Falcons victory, favoring them and projecting a close victory. Las Vegas has the Saints getting the job done at home, but that’s one of just a few games STATS and Vegas disagree on this week.

STATS uses proprietary data to project spreads for each NFL game. STATS X-Info calculates roster rankings based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread.

None of these spread projections mean you should empty your account and follow the STATS model to riches. X-Info simply takes into account factors Vegas may not, hence some differing views. And if you’re looking for fantasy advice, you’re still best suited to follow best-in-the-business Sean Koerner and his weekly tiers.

Have a look at how STATS projects the spreads in Week 16 against those coming out of Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. The games are separated into two groups based on the difference between STATS’ spread and the Vegas spread, along with the projected scores from the STATS model.

Group 1 – STATS Lines Similar to Vegas (Within 4 Points):

Indianapolis at Baltimore

STATS: Ravens -14.36
Vegas: Ravens -13.5
Projected score: Ravens 27, Colts 13

Buffalo at New England

STATS: Patriots -10.79
Vegas: Patriots -12
Projected score: Patriots 28, Bills 18

Cleveland at Chicago

STATS: Bears -4.55
Vegas: Bears -6.5
Projected score: Bears 25, Browns 21

Tampa Bay at Carolina

STATS: Panthers -6.83
Vegas: Panthers -10
Projected score: Panthers 30, Bucs 23

Denver at Washington

STATS: Redskins -1.12
Vegas: Redskins -3.5
Projected score: Redskins 17, Broncos 16

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee

STATS: Rams -6.29
Vegas: Rams -7
Projected score: Rams 30, Titans 24

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

STATS: Chargers -9.62
Vegas: Chargers -7
Projected score: Chargers 22, Jets 13

Jacksonville at San Francisco

STATS: Jaguars -0.59
Vegas: Jaguars -4
Projected score: Jaguars 21, 49ers 20

New York Giants at Arizona

STATS: Cardinals -3.73
Vegas: Cardinals -3.5
Projected score: Cardinals 20, Giants 17

Pittsburgh at Houston

STATS: Steelers 11.45
Vegas: Steelers -9.5
Projected score: Steelers 28, Texans 16

Oakland at Philadelphia

STATS: Eagles -11.5
Vegas: Eagles -9
Projected score: Eagles 25, Raiders 14

Minnesota at Green Bay

STATS: Vikings -5.16
Vegas: Vikings -9
Projected score: Vikings 27, Packers 22

Seattle at Dallas

STATS: Cowboys -1.7
Vegas: Cowboys -5
Projected score: Cowboys 20, Seahawks 19

Group 2 – STATS Lines Not Similar to Vegas:

Atlanta at New Orleans

STATS: Falcons -1.47
Vegas: Saints -5.5
Projected score: Falcons 29, Saints 27

Detroit at Cincinnati

STATS: Bengals -0.8
Vegas: Lions -4
Projected score: Bengals 22, Lions 20

Miami at Kansas City

STATS: Chiefs -2.92
Vegas: Chiefs -10.5
Projected score: Chiefs 22, Dolphins 18