STATS vs. Las Vegas: Finding the Most Value in Week 10

By: STATS LLC | November 9, 2018

The days of the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers battling for NFC supremacy are long gone. The present sees both in a sad state before what each team hopes will be a return to glory in the near future.

Would the 49ers be sitting in a better position if Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t suffer a season-ending injury? Would the Giants be more competitive if they move on from Eli Manning? No one can be sure. But the reality is these teams head into Monday Night Football a combined 3-14, leaving little reason to tune in. That is unless you have a stake in the game. And that’s where STATS can help you out a bit.

STATS uses unique metrics, deep-dive analytics and proprietary roster rankings to project NFL spreads for every game, every week. STATS calculates roster quality based on injuries, statistical data and depth at each position, then compares that to an opponent and arrives at a conclusion – the projected spread. Using those projected spreads, STATS can compare them to spreads from the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks, find where STATS differs the most, and extract value from those games.

Here’s a look at why we see the 49ers presenting a good amount of value, along with a couple other games from the Week 10 slate that caught our attention.

New York Giants at San Francisco

STATS: 49ers -12
Vegas: 49ers -3.5

The Giants have but a single victory, and we’re higher on the 49ers than most – especially now that Beathard isn’t playing. The story of this one will be how much the Giants can contain the 49ers’ pass rush. Everyone knows about the struggles the Giants have protecting the quarterback, and the right side of the line is a major liability. The right tackle position has been particularly bad, and while Chad Wheeler will likely avoid seeing DeForest Buckner, he’ll still have to handle a rotation of Armstead, Thomas, and Marsh. None of them are great pass rushers, but Wheeler has a tendency to make average players look like Pro Bowlers. In fact, compared to expected results, Wheeler has given up the most pressures among right tackles this year.

There’s not a whole lot to like about the Giants on the other side of the ball either. Their run defense is fine – even after trading away Snacks Harrison – but they lack a pass rush and outside of Landon Collins, they don’t have anyone who can shut down the passing game. The linebackers have been particularly bad in coverage this year, and STATS has them as the fifth-worst linebacker coverage unit in the NFL.

This probably won’t be a pretty game, we like the Niners a lot, and the line is low enough that we can likely avoid a backdoor cover. If you can find this at SF -3, take it, but even at -3.5 we’re fans of sacrificing some points.

Detroit at Chicago

STATS: Bears -12.5
Vegas: Bears -7

This one is a little contingent on whether or not T.J. Lang plays. If it’s Kenny Wiggins at right guard trying to block Akiem Hicks every play, it might be another game of Stafford running for his life. The Lions look absolutely lost right now.

New England at Tennessee

STATS: Titans PK
Vegas: Titans +6.5

We like the Patriots a lot, so this is more about how we feel about the Titans. After looking horrible for a few weeks, they returned to form against the Cowboys on Monday night. Their defense has been lights-out all year, particularly their linebackers and safeties. Jayon Brown, Wesley Woodyard, and Kevin Byard have all been top-10 players at their position in coverage this season. We think this game will be low scoring, close, and a treat to watch. If you can find Titans +7, pounce on it, but even at +6.5 we see some value.