STATS MLB DFS Projections, April 16: Houston Should Not Have A Problem

By: Fabio de Simone | April 16, 2019

Tonight features a full slate of games with the entire league in action. Using STATS’ daily projections alongside the salaries of each player on the respective contest site, this article will pinpoint the most optimal starts of the night on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pitcher
Top Projection: Chris Sale ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)
Despite his rocky start to the year, Sale is our top projected pitcher of the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he comes at a bargain. With a start versus a middling Yankee offense that is dealing with injuries, Sale projects to buoy his value for the evening with eight-plus projected strikeouts.

Value Picks: Sale ($7,900 DraftKings), Reynaldo Lopez ($5,600 FanDuel)
Lopez, who has the lowest FanDuel salary of the slate, looks to make the most of his bargain price-tag with six projected strikeouts, which should offset what projects to be a middling start against the Royals.

Catcher
Top Projection: Wilson Ramos ($3,900 DraftKings/$2,800 FanDuel)
Ramos projects as the highest-scoring player at the position with his hot bat set to cross paths with the pitching of the Phillies’ Nick Pivetta, who sits at an unseemly 2.18 WHIP through three starts.

Value Picks: Grayson Greiner ($2,500 DraftKings), Danny Jansen ($2,000 FanDuel)
Neither Greiner nor Jansen project particularly well, but with a strong chance to get on base at least once, they serve as good values at their bargain salaries.

First Base
Top Projection: Pete Alonso ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel)
The way-too-early NL Rookie of the Year favorite, Alonso is slugging .763 through 16 games and is our top projected first baseman on both sites.

Value Picks: Chris Davis ($2,100 DraftKings), Lucas Duda ($2,000 FanDuel)
It wasn’t going to take long for Davis to start getting mentioned as a value play, and he projects to be one tonight despite being our lowest projected first baseman of the slate. His salary remains so disproportionally depressed on DraftKings that it offsets his weak projection and gives him value as a bargain play. Duda has a strong chance to get on base against the White Sox and looks to make the most of his FanDuel salary, which is the lowest at the position.

Second Base
Top Projection: Jose Altuve ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel)
Altuve is mashing to the tune of a .328 batting average and a .688 slugging percentage, and unsurprisingly sits atop our projections for the position.

Value Picks: Joe Panik ($3,000 DraftKings), Ildemaro Vargas ($2,000 FanDuel)
Panik and Vargas both sit among the lowest salaries for the slate and look to be undervalued as they project strongly to get on base at least once.

Third Base
Top Projection: Alex Bregman ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel)
Bregman is our top projected third baseman for the slate, as his strong start to the year as a contact hitter bodes well for his odds against Oakland’s soft-tossing Marco Estrada.

Value Picks: Bregman ($4,600 DraftKings), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,000 FanDuel)
Sanchez’s bottom-of-the-slate salary looks to undervalue his modest contact hitting ability that sees him batting .250 in his last seven games.

Shortstop
Top Projection: Carlos Correa ($4,500 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel)
Correa, like the rest of the Houston infield, project strongly against Oakland this evening, as he sits atop our shortstop projections for the slate.

Value Pick: Zack Cozart ($3,200 DraftKings/$2,000 FanDuel)
Despite his woeful start to the year, Cozart is our top projected value on both sites with our model favoring his chances to get a hit at least once this evening in what projects to be a poor start for the Rangers’ Mike Minor.

Outfield
Top Projections: Mike Trout ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel), Mookie Betts ($5,200 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel), George Springer ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel)
Trout, Betts, and Springer project to be the top outfielder plays of the evening. Trout is off to another MVP-caliber start that sees him slugging .882, while Betts and Springer project well in their own right as the Red Sox are set to face a struggling James Paxton and the Astros looks to feast on Estrada.

Value Picks: Josh Reddick ($3,400 DraftKings/$2,100 FanDuel), Springer ($4,400 DraftKings), Jake Cave ($2,000 FanDuel)
Our value picks at outfielder for tonight’s slate take advantage of the lower end of the salary pool with players such as Reddick and Cave projected to outperform their meager salaries.

STATS Picks (DraftKings)
STATS Picks are what our model considers to be the most optimal lineup for the slate (on DraftKings) based on a mix of our projections and how the salary cap would be best spent to get the most out of every single roster selection.

Pitcher
Joe Musgrove ($7,300)
Brandon Woodruff ($7,500)
Catcher
Robinson Chirinos ($3,600)
First Base
Ji-Man Choi ($3,600)
Second Base
Jose Altuve ($4,800)
Third Base
Alex Bregman ($4,600)
Shortstop
Corey Seager ($4,200)
Outfield
Mike Trout ($5,700)
George Springer ($4,400)
Shin-Soo Choo ($4,300)