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Euro 2016 Projections
NationSemi-FinalsFinalWinners
France82.4%40.4%24.6%
Germany62.1%35.5%24.0%
Belgium74.5%43.6%18.3%
Italy37.9%20.3%12.3%
Portugal61.3%29.8%11.2%
Poland38.7%15.5%5.1%
Wales25.5%11.1%2.7%
Iceland17.6%3.8%1.7%

Last Updated: June 28th

League Table Stats

MP: Matches Played
W: Wins
D: Draws
L: Losses
GF: Goals For
GA: Goals Allowed
GD: Goal Differential
Pts: League Points

STATS Forecasts

ePTS: Expected League Points
Champs: % chance of winning the league
Top 3/4: % chance of finishing in the Top 3 or Top 4
Relegation: % chance of being relegated

Euro 2016: % chance of reaching each round/winning the competition

PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS ARTICLES

Euro 2016 Projections
Spanish players hold the trophy after  the Euro 2008 final between Germany and Spain in the Ernst-Happel stadium in Vienna, Austria, Sunday, June 29, 2008, the last day of the European Soccer Championships in Austria and Switzerland. Spain defeated Germany 1-0. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
Watford's Odion Ighalo, left, celebrates scoring his side's first goal with Troy Deeney during the English FA Cup quarterfinal soccer match between Arsenal and Watford at the Emirates stadium in London, Sunday, March 13, 2016.  (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
Real Madrid's coach Manuel Pellegrini from Chile, right talks to Cristiano Ronaldo from Portugal during their La Liga soccer match against Sporting de Gijon at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, Saturday, March 20, 2010.(AP Photo/Daniel Ochoa de Olza)

METHODOLOGY

STATS are projecting the chances of success for every club in the Champions League as well as each of Europe’s big five leagues: the Premier League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga.

We use our unparalleled data analytics technology combined with data collected by STATS to create our own European football projections, aimed at calculating the percentage probabilities for each team’s league finish in the big five European leagues. These will be based on proprietary STATS power ratings and algorithms analysing multiple data points associated with previous years of performance for each club. The League Projections represent the expected probability of each team winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League and ending the season in the relegation zone.

Once each team is given its distinctive STATS rating, we simulate each match of the season 10,000 times in order to provide a projection for the level of success expected for each club. The simulation eliminates ambiguity in the league table and provides an accurate projection as a result of its large sample size.

The tables provide a purely objective projection for all European clubs and projects their finish based on the results of our simulations. Each league table will be updated throughout the season to show how all of these probabilities change based on team’s current records, updated team ratings with factors including club form and strength of each side’s remaining schedule.

Frequently Asked Questions

How can I use this STATS feature?

STATS calculates the odds that each team, across the Top 5 European leagues, has of winning its league. Furthermore, we identify the odds of each team finishing in key spots in their respective leagues including the automatic Champions League Positions, the top half, bottom half and relegation places.

These odds are shown as percentages and can be sorted by any column:

CHAMPS – % chance each team has of winning the league
TOP 3 or 4 – % chance each team has of finishing in the key Champions League positions
RELEGATION – % chance of each team finishing in the relegation zone

Using our simulations, we have provided forecasts for the number of ‘Wins’, ‘Draws’ and ‘Losses’ for each team along with their expected ‘Goals Against’ and ‘Goals For’ for the season duration. These figures are taken into account when forecasting the final number of points expected for each team.

How many times do you simulate each match?

Each match of the season 10,000 times in order to provide an accurate projection for how each team will finish. The simulation eliminates ambiguity in the league table, and provides an accurate projection as a result of its large sample size.

How accurate are the STATS Projections?

The STATS Premier League projections were the most accurate of 60 predictions made by various fans, journalists, analytics experts and a few betting companies ahead of the 2014/15 season. More information can be found here.

Why do some teams have a 0.0% chance of winning the division, or finishing in certain positions?

This means that after simulating each match of the season 10,000 times, these teams had a less than 0.05% chance of ending in those positions. For the purpose of the table we have rounded percentages to one decimal point.

Do you take into account a team’s schedule (stronger or weaker teams)?

Yes. The simulation is done with each team’s schedule so if there are 2 matches left and Team A has the last 2 games at home against weaker teams and Team B has 2 away games against stronger teams this will be reflected in their rest of season projections and other related forecasts.

Many ‘relegated’ percentages don’t relate to the final positions. How is this explained?

This is why Monte Carlo simulations can produce the most accurate odds as opposed to linear formulas.

This is largely due to the point system in each league, where teams get 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw. Across the league, each team is given a ‘Goals Scored’ and ‘Goals Allowed’ rate. Due to the scoring nature of football, the higher scoring matches will translate into fewer draws than a team of equal strength that tends to play in lower scoring matches. In this way, some teams may encounter more draws during the course of the season when compared to another team, purely based on their goal scoring and goal conceding ratings.

This is then reversed in the bottom half of the table because higher scoring matches hurt below average teams. Since these teams are likely to score less than 50% of the total goals in their matches, more ‘draws’ are turned into ‘losses’ over the course of the season.

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