1500x200_STATS_LP_BG
Premier League
PosTeamMPWDLGFGAGDPtsePtsChampsTop 4Relegation
1Leicester2515824727205371.413.9%92.3%0.0%
2Tottenham2513934519264870.013.2%79.9%0.0%
3Arsenal2514653922174874.543.1%93.2%0.0%
4Manchester City2514564726214772.627.5%94.1%0.0%
5Manchester United2511863222104165.82.3%35.8%0.0%
6West Ham251096382993954.80.0%0.4%0.0%
7Southampton251078332493754.90.0%0.5%0.0%
8Everton2581164634123554.10.0%0.5%0.0%
9Liverpool259883236-43558.40.0%3.1%0.0%
10Watford259610272703347.00.0%0.0%0.2%
11Stoke2596102431-73349.60.0%0.0%0.1%
12Crystal Palace2595112630-43248.20.0%0.0%0.3%
13Chelsea257993335-23054.90.0%0.2%0.2%
14West Brom2578102332-92942.10.0%0.0%7.5%
15Bournemouth2577112941-122840.20.0%0.0%17.2%
16Swansea2569102433-92741.60.0%0.0%9.4%
17Newcastle United2566132644-182438.20.0%0.0%33.5%
18Norwich2565142848-202335.70.0%0.0%62.1%
19Sunderland2555153049-192033.20.0%0.0%74.1%
20Aston Villa2537152040-201628.20.0%0.0%95.6%

Last Updated: February 7th

La Liga
PosTeamMPWDLGFGAGDPtsePtsChampsTop 4Relegation
1Barcelona2217325617395494.392.0%100.0%0.0%
2Atletico Madrid2316343411235183.61.8%99.1%0.0%
3Real Madrid2315536621455084.76.1%100.0%0.0%
4Villarreal2313642918114569.50.0%73.3%0.0%
5Sevilla231076322483766.10.0%21.5%0.0%
6Athletic Bilbao231058333033558.40.0%5.0%0.0%
7Celta Vigo2310583436-23554.00.0%0.6%0.0%
8Eibar23968363153350.40.0%0.0%0.0%
9Deportivo La Coruna236134312833146.20.0%0.1%0.0%
10Malaga23869212013051.50.0%0.3%0.0%
11Real Sociedad2376103134-32744.00.0%0.0%1.3%
12Getafe2375112635-92641.50.0%0.0%8.2%
13Valencia235108262422544.40.0%0.1%0.2%
14Betis2367101631-152539.70.0%0.0%11.1%
15Rayo Vallecano2365123047-172338.60.0%0.0%31.7%
16Gijon2264122436-122237.30.0%0.0%30.9%
17Espanyol2364132046-262236.50.0%0.0%33.5%
18Deportiva Las Palmas2356122336-132135.00.0%0.0%52.9%
19Granada2355132546-212036.60.0%0.0%47.3%
20Levante2345142143-221731.50.0%0.0%83.0%

Last Updated: February 8th

Bundesliga
PosTeamMPWDLGFGAGDPtsePtsChampsTop 4Relegation
1Bayern Munich201721509415388.799.4%100.0%0.0%
2Borussia Dortmund2014335224284573.70.6%100.0%0.0%
3Hertha Berlin201055292183553.00.0%31.9%0.0%
4Schalke 04201037292633353.90.0%30.0%0.0%
5Bayer Leverkusen20956292183256.30.0%71.2%0.0%
6Borussia Monchengladbach201028403553255.90.0%42.0%0.0%
7Mainz20938252413049.30.0%5.1%0.1%
8VfL Wolfsburg20767292812750.40.0%19.2%0.0%
9FC Koln206862126-52640.70.0%0.2%2.4%
10Ingolstadt207581421-72641.10.0%0.2%5.4%
11Darmstadt206682129-82435.40.0%0.0%17.9%
12VfB Stuttgart2073103141-102441.10.0%0.1%7.0%
13Hamburg SV206592228-62338.90.0%0.1%7.2%
14FC Augsburg205692228-62137.50.0%0.0%10.7%
15Eintracht Frankfurt205692634-82136.90.0%0.0%13.5%
16Werder Bremen2054112441-171935.80.0%0.0%27.9%
17TSG Hoffenheim2028101830-121428.10.0%0.0%62.5%
18Hannover 962042141935-161431.70.0%0.0%78.9%

Last Updated: February 7th

Ligue 1
PosTeamMPWDLGFGAGDPtsePtsChampsTop 3Relegation
1Paris Saint-Germain25223063125169101.3100.0%100.0%0.0%
2AS Monaco251294362884564.70.0%53.3%0.0%
3Nice251168382993959.20.0%13.9%0.9%
4St Etienne2512310302823961.50.0%21.8%0.5%
5Angers251078252323751.90.0%5.1%1.5%
6Lyon251069342773658.40.0%37.2%0.1%
7Nantes25997242313633.40.0%2.7%11.8%
8Caen25113112631-53653.60.0%0.8%7.7%
9Stade Rennes258116333123550.50.0%12.8%2.0%
10Marseille258107352693453.10.0%35.1%0.4%
11Bordeaux258983237-53352.60.0%8.9%1.9%
12Lorient2571083436-23146.40.0%3.1%8.5%
13Guingamp2587102630-43144.80.0%0.6%22.8%
14Bastia2594122429-53149.80.0%0.9%17.7%
15Lille256127202003047.90.0%2.8%1.9%
16Stade de Reims2578102733-62941.50.0%0.5%30.8%
17Gazelec Ajaccio2569102534-92738.40.0%0.3%30.2%
18Montpellier2575132831-32646.40.0%0.2%15.3%
19Toulouse2549122542-172151.30.0%0.0%46.0%
20Troyes2518161651-351119.10.0%0.0%99.9%

Last Updated: February 7th

Serie A
PosTeamMPWDLGFGAGDPtsePtsChampsTop 3Relegation
1Napoli2417525319345683.836.7%98.4%0.0%
2Juventus2417344515305485.162.8%>99.9%0.0%
3Fiorentina2414464223194672.20.3%41.7%0.0%
4Internazionale2413653020104569.00.1%13.8%0.0%
5Roma2412844426184470.60.2%43.0%0.0%
6AC Milan241176352694063.50.0%3.0%0.0%
7Sassuolo248106282803449.90.0%0.0%0.0%
8Empoli249782932-33450.60.0%0.0%0.1%
9Lazio249692932-33354.30.0%0.1%0.0%
10Chievo2486102932-33046.80.0%0.0%0.7%
11Bologna2493122831-33047.00.0%0.0%0.2%
12Torino2477103032-22844.50.0%0.0%0.5%
13Atalanta2477102327-42841.70.0%0.0%4.2%
14Palermo2476112736-92744.20.0%0.0%3.0%
15Udinese2476112137-162742.30.0%0.0%3.8%
16Sampdoria2466123643-72442.90.0%0.0%3.8%
17Genoa2458112129-82340.20.0%0.0%9.1%
18Carpi FC2447132240-181930.90.0%0.0%84.9%
19Frosinone2454152450-261931.60.0%0.0%94.6%
20Verona24112111937-181525.70.0%0.0%94.9%

Last Updated: February 7th

Champions League

Post-Round of 16 Draw

Team% Chance of Progression
to the Quarter-Finals
% Chance of Winning
the Champions League
Barcelona77.1%29.5%
Bayern Munich72.0%21.3%
Real Madrid79.5%16.1%
Atletico Madrid77.0%6.9%
Paris Saint-Germain57.0%6.6%
Manchester City81.5%5.8%
Chelsea43.0%3.8%
Juventus28.0%2.9%
Arsenal22.9%2.4%
Wolfsburg81.0%2.0%
Zenit St. Petersburg51.6%1.1%
Benfica48.4%0.6%
Roma20.5%0.6%
PSV23.0%0.1%
Dynamo Kiev18.5%0.1%
Gent19.0%0.0%

Last Updated: February 10th

League Table Stats

MP: Matches Played
W: Wins
D: Draws
L: Losses
GF: Goals For
GA: Goals Allowed
GD: Goal Differential
Pts: League Points

STATS Forecasts

ePts: Expected League Points
Champs: % chance of winning the league
Top 3/4: % chance of finishing in the Top 3 or Top 4
Relegation: % chance of being relegated

METHODOLOGY

STATS are projecting the chances of success for every club in the Champions League as well as each of Europe’s big five leagues: the Premier League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga.

We use our unparalleled data analytics technology combined with data collected by STATS to create our own European football projections, aimed at calculating the percentage probabilities for each team’s league finish in the big five European leagues. These will be based on proprietary STATS power ratings and algorithms analysing multiple data points associated with previous years of performance for each club. The League Projections represent the expected probability of each team winning the title, qualifying for the Champions League and ending the season in the relegation zone.

Once each team is given its distinctive STATS rating, we simulate each match of the season 100,000 times in order to provide a projection for the level of success expected for each club. The simulation eliminates ambiguity in the league table, and provides an accurate projection as a result of its large sample size.

The tables provide a purely objective projection for all European clubs, and projects their finish based on the results of our simulations. Each league table will be updated throughout the season to show how all of these probabilities change based on team’s current records, updated team ratings with factors including club form and strength of each side’s remaining schedule.

Frequently Asked Questions

How can I use this STATS feature?

STATS calculates the odds that each team, across the Top 5 European leagues, has of winning its league. Furthermore, we identify the odds of each team finishing in key spots in their respective leagues including the automatic Champions League Positions, the top half, bottom half and relegation places.

These odds are shown as percentages and can be sorted by any column:

CHAMPS – % chance each team has of winning the league
TOP 3 or 4 – % chance each team has of finishing in the key Champions League positions
RELEGATION – % chance of each team finishing in the relegation zone

Using our simulations, we have provided forecasts for the number of ‘Wins’, ‘Draws’ and ‘Losses’ for each team along with their expected ‘Goals Against’ and ‘Goals For’ for the season duration. These figures are taken into account when forecasting the final number of points expected for each team.

How many times do you simulate each match?

Each match of the season 10,000 times in order to provide an accurate projection for how each team will finish. The simulation eliminates ambiguity in the league table, and provides an accurate projection as a result of its large sample size.

How accurate are the STATS Projections?

The STATS Premier League projections were the most accurate of 60 predictions made by various fans, journalists, analytics experts and a few betting companies ahead of the 2014/15 season. More information can be found here.

Why do some teams have a 0.0% chance of winning the division, or finishing in certain positions?

This means that after simulating each match of the season 10,000 times, these teams had a less than 0.05% chance of ending in those positions. For the purpose of the table we have rounded percentages to one decimal point.

Do you take into account a team’s schedule (stronger or weaker teams)?

Yes. The simulation is done with each team’s schedule so if there are 2 matches left and Team A has the last 2 games at home against weaker teams and Team B has 2 away games against stronger teams this will be reflected in their rest of season projections and other related forecasts.

Many ‘relegated’ percentages don’t relate to the final positions. How is this explained?

This is why Monte Carlo simulations can produce the most accurate odds as opposed to linear formulas.

This is largely due to the point system in each league, where teams get 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw. Across the league, each team is given a ‘Goals Scored’ and ‘Goals Allowed’ rate. Due to the scoring nature of football, the higher scoring matches will translate into fewer draws than a team of equal strength that tends to play in lower scoring matches. In this way, some teams may encounter more draws during the course of the season when compared to another team, purely based on their goal scoring and goal conceding ratings.

This is then reversed in the bottom half of the table because higher scoring matches hurt below average teams. Since these teams are likely to score less than 50% of the total goals in their matches, more ‘draws’ are turned into ‘losses’ over the course of the season.

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